What A Month

Happy Sunday! 

February is in the rear view mirror. And the indices remain range bound. 

Yesterday, the United States and Israel began attacks on Iran. Khamenei is dead. Much is unclear. The fog of war is in full force. May we find peace. 

Monday’s market will likely elicit a reaction to the weekend’s events. And it may serve as a catalyst to resolve from our 5-month sideways range. 

Here’s the daily S&P 500 chart. 

And monthly.

There’s precedent that times of war can yield outstanding returns. In 1991, during Operation Desert Storm, the S&P 500 surged 26%. The index was up 16% in the month following the operation.

Here’s the historic daily chart. 

The buzzword of 2026 thus far is dispersion.

Basic materials and energy are up more than 20% YTD.

While financials, consumer discretionary, technology, and communications are negative. 

The tech sector continues to leave me cautious, but this week, I’m watching for strength. 

Here’s how I’m thinking heading into Monday, 

Will the market gap higher or lower following this weekend’s attack? 

Will materials + energy lead? Or can financials and co. play catch up?

What happens to oil? Interest rates?

Next leg higher in Aerospace and Defense? Will drones outperform?

Can Nvidia catch a bid?

Is conflict likely to linger?

I curated a plethora of charts that caught my eye from this weekend’s observations. Grab a beverage, and enjoy. (LINK)

P.S. Steve is going live this Wednesday, March 4th to walk through his edge in the options market. Save your seat here!

Disclosure: This is not financial advice.