Watch the Tape, Not the Rocket

Good morning friends,

We're receiving clarity on SpaceX's upcoming IPO.

The stock - $SPCX - is set to trade next Friday, June 12.

Per the most recent prospectus, the company will offer 555,555,555 shares at an initial offering price of $135.

Now - I think it's responsible for us to realize that $135 is not the guaranteed price at which the stock will begin trading.

And it isn't crazy to think they may send this name north of $300 before it actually prints.

It’s a landmark IPO. The biggest in history, with ambitious goals out of this World.

This is why markets are great!

Markets are the breeding ground for technology. 

A birthplace where an innovative idea is brought to life.

That said - I don't intend to trade the Opening Day.

I'll watch. I’ll wait. 

Sit on the sidelines, and enjoy the entertainment.

I'll be focused on how similar names - within the next-gen aerospace theme - trade in tandem.

Names like $TSLA, $RKLB, $UFO.

I understand the hype and hoopla with the IPO.

The media will prop it up till they're blue in the face.

And we've seen this show before.

In 2012, $META opened at 42.05 and in ~4 months found itself as low as 17.55.

Yes - $META recovered. Today, the stock is above 630, but that initial 50% haircut is not for the faint of heart. 

Robinhood was another media darling. 

In 2021, $HOOD opened at 38 - ticked 85 a few days in, then cascaded down below 7.

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. 

Big valuations. Big headlines. 

It’s a big day to generate clicks. 

But I think it’s unlikely you’ll miss out on a shot at “generational wealth” if you let this pitch pass. 

There are no called 3rd strikes on Wall Street. 

It’s a marathon. Not a sprint.

A game of longevity. 

Let the eager beavers be the first to play while we wait and formulate our own game plan.

Tomorrow I'm flying, early in the morning. 

I’ll share details over the weekend. 

Godspeed.