The Public Always Shows Up Late
Happy Sunday everyone!
I traversed to Denver this weekend. Family celebration of life. And I caught a shot of my favorite house along the way - it's at the end of the post. ;)
But first, let's talk stocks.
The smartest market participants I know are cautious with how bonds and yields closed the week. This isn't my area of expertise - bonds are boring, until they aren't.
So I do what I do when something matters and isn't my edge. I observe the smartest people I know.
Here's what they're highlighting,
The 30-Year Yield closed at its highest level since 2007.
The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT tumbled to its lowest price since 2023.
It could be nothing. Or it could be something. Time will tell…
While the bond market whispers caution, the IPO market pops champagne.
Reports are that SpaceX plans to make its public trading debut on June 12 with the ticker $SPCX.
In unprecedented fashion - the company has already approved a 5-for-1 stock split.
The financial press will tell you it's historic.
Once-in-a-lifetime.
The IPO of the decade.
Statistically, perhaps. But it's foolish to think there won't be another.
Buffett said it best. There are no called strikes in this game.
Is this IPO marking a top? Maybe. It's greater than a zero probability.
As the old saying goes "Sell in May and go away."
Maybe that's exactly the trade.
Go away.
Enjoy the summer.
Bask in the Sun.
And reassess when school is back in session.
Impossible to know. Next week will be telling.
JC recently shared a great note on IPOs. One line stayed with me,
"The problem is the public always shows up thinking they're getting in early."
He's right. And the SpaceX story makes it impossible to miss.
Step back to 2002. eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5B and a 30-year-old Elon Musk walks away with roughly $175M.
He could have rested on his laurels.
He didn't.
He poured what was left into three bets the smart money called insane - SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity.
By 2008, two of those bets were on the brink.
Tesla nearly bankrupt.
SpaceX one failed launch from finished. The Falcon 1 had crashed on three consecutive attempts.
The millionaire who once owned half of PayPal was sleeping on friends' couches, every dollar of his fortune burned keeping the companies alive.
That's when the early backers stepped in.
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. Steve Jurvetson at DFJ. Valor Equity Partners. Capricorn. Series A at the bottom of the cycle - the bet nobody else would take.
They have been holding for the better part of two decades.
Now the IPO is here. Reported valuation North of a trillion dollars. Likely the largest IPO in history.
And guess who's ringing the register...
The IPO marks the beginning of the company's public operations.
But don’t confuse that for being early.
The IPO prints 24 years AFTER SpaceX launched.
A few notes on Elon.
He's just a dude who wants to move to Mars.
Let him cook.
I don't know him personally. I can't speak to his character.
But I can speak to the work.
Rockets that land themselves. Electric (and autonomous) cars that created a new category. Satellite internet beamed to Earth. Brain implants. Tunnels.
The list goes on.
Elon is a Renaissance Man in the most literal sense.
Whether you love him or hate him, the audacity to chase dreams that "out-of-this-world" demands respect.
Here’s what I’m watching this week - $ONDS.
Daily.
Weekly.
Last week’s earnings were nothing shy of exceptional - Ondas Grew Revenue 10X YoY.
Now we wait and see if the stock emerges as a growth leader.
If $ONDS maintains strength as markets shift from “risk-on” to “risk-off” - that’s incredibly positive.
If growth stocks get whacked, and $ONDS follows suit - maybe the best trade is Sell in May and go away.
Tomorrow’s tape will shed much needed light.
More soon.
Godspeed.
